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Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2021 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2021 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
AB
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR · USC
21.5 yo · 5'11" · 197 lb
EM
Elijah Moore
WR · Mississippi
21.1 yo · — · —
RB
Rashod Bateman
WR · Minnesota
21.4 yo · 6'0" · 190 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Amon-Ra St. Brown
Predicted pick
#39
range #1–#89
Bust probability
0%
0%0/3 comps
Consensus rank
#76
on 22 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$33Mmodel
Elijah Moore
Predicted pick
#22
range #1–#66
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#30
on 27 boards
Career arc
Franchise
tier · 1st Round
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Rashod Bateman
Predicted pick
#9
range #1–#52
Bust probability
5%
Consensus rank
#23
on 27 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$11Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown· RB / WR / TE
  • Elijah Moore· RB / WR / TE
  • Rashod Bateman· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionAmon-Ra St. Brown0
  • AthleticismAmon-Ra St. Brown19
  • AgeElijah Moore75
  • ConsensusElijah Moore27
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Amon-Ra St. Brown50
  • Breakout ageAmon-Ra St. Brown50
  • WorkloadAmon-Ra St. Brown100
  • RAS × productionElijah Moore41

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Christian KirkWR · Franchise→ shared byAmon-Ra St. BrownElijah Moore
Amon-Ra St. Brown
  • Dillon Mitchell
    WR · #239
    TBD
  • Christian Kirkshared
    WR · #47
    Franchise
  • Isaiah Ford
    WR · #237
    TBD
  • Ryan Switzer
    WR · #133
    Bust
  • Antonio Callaway
    WR · #105
    Contributor
Elijah Moore
  • A.J. Brown
    WR · #51
    Franchise
  • N'Keal Harry
    WR · #32
    Contributor
  • Kelvin Harmon
    WR · #206
    Bust
  • Christian Kirkshared
    WR · #47
    Franchise
  • Courtland Sutton
    WR · #40
    Franchise
Rashod Bateman
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Amon-Ra St. Brown
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    23 boards place him at mean rank #74; model has him #39 — a 35-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Comp group has bust risk
    1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Ryan Switzer. Mixed signal from history.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Elijah Moore
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: A.J. Brown, Christian Kirk, Courtland Sutton. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Rashod Bateman
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Snap share
Amon-Ra St. BrownElijah MooreRashod Bateman· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Draftanomics projects Amon-Ra St. Brown (age 21.5 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #39 (range #1-#89, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Dillon Mitchell, Christian Kirk (Franchise), Isaiah Ford. Ceiling is Christian Kirk (Franchise); floor is Dillon Mitchell. 1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Ryan Switzer. Mixed signal from history. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 35 spots ahead of the room (board #39 vs consensus #74), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Elijah Moore

Draftanomics projects Elijah Moore (age 21.1 at draft) as a first-round pick at #22 (range #1-#66, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: A.J. Brown (Franchise), N'Keal Harry (Contributor), Kelvin Harmon (Bust). Ceiling is Courtland Sutton (Franchise); floor is N'Keal Harry (Contributor). The call is a value lean: #22 against a consensus #36 is a 14-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.

Rashod Bateman

+0.09 boards with him top-100; +0.04 charting: yards per route run from the slot, best season; +0.03 boards with him top-50