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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2021 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (DL)
CB
Christian Barmore
DL · Alabama
21.8 yo · 6'4" · 310 lb
JT
Jay Tufele
DL · USC
21.8 yo · 6'2" · 305 lb
KP
Kwity Paye
DL · Michigan
22.4 yo · 6'2" · 261 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Christian Barmore
Predicted pick
#30
range #12–#73
Bust probability
15%
Consensus rank
#21
on 27 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$11Mmodel
Jay Tufele
Predicted pick
#98
range #68–#128
Bust probability
45%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#100
on 22 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Kwity Paye
Predicted pick
#40
range #32–#48
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#17
on 27 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$16Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Christian Barmore· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Jay Tufele· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Kwity Paye· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionChristian Barmore0
  • AthleticismChristian Barmore19
  • AgeJay Tufele78
  • ConsensusKwity Paye96
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Christian Barmore50
  • Breakout ageChristian Barmore50
  • WorkloadChristian Barmore100
  • RAS × productionChristian Barmore30

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Christian Barmore
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Jay Tufele
  • Montravius Adams
    DT · #93
    Bust
  • Caleb Brantley
    DT · #185
    Bust
  • Daylon Mack
    DT · #160
    Bust
  • Chad Thomas
    EDGE · #67
    Contributor
  • Andrew Brown
    EDGE · #158
    Bust
Kwity Paye
  • Emmanuel Ogbah
    EDGE · #32
    Starter
  • Myles Jack
    OLB · #36
    Starter
  • Solomon Thomas
    EDGE · #3
    Bust
  • Sheldon Rankins
    DT · #12
    Starter
  • Leighton Vander Esch
    OLB · #19
    Starter

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Christian Barmore
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Jay Tufele
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 3.62 (36th percentile at DL). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Comp group bust rate
    4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Montravius Adams, Caleb Brantley, Daylon Mack (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Kwity Paye
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Emmanuel Ogbah, Myles Jack, Sheldon Rankins (+1 more). The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Snap share
Christian BarmoreJay TufeleKwity Paye· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Christian Barmore

+0.09 boards with him top-100; +0.06 scout consensus; −0.05 charting: average depth of target allowed, career avg

Jay Tufele

Draftanomics projects Jay Tufele (age 21.8 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #98 (range #68-#128, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 45% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Montravius Adams (Bust), Caleb Brantley (Bust), Daylon Mack (Bust). Ceiling is Chad Thomas (Contributor); floor is Caleb Brantley (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Montravius Adams, Caleb Brantley, Daylon Mack (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 16 spots below the room's consensus #82 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.

Kwity Paye

Draftanomics projects Kwity Paye (age 22.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #40 (range #32-#48, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Emmanuel Ogbah (Starter), Myles Jack (Starter), Solomon Thomas (Bust). Ceiling is Sheldon Rankins (Starter); floor is Myles Jack (Starter). The call is a lean fade: the model sits 22 spots below the room's consensus #18 — don't pay sticker price. The 22-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.