2 prospects · 2021 draft
Decisive factor: a stronger historical comp arc. Reinforced by 24-pick gap on Draftanomics projection and $8M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Ifeatu Melifonwu (age 22.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #117 (range #76-#158, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Maurice Canady (Bust), Shaquill Griffin (Bust), Chidobe Awuzie (Bust). Ceiling is Sean Murphy-Bunting (Starter); floor is Isaiah Oliver (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Maurice Canady, Shaquill Griffin, Chidobe Awuzie. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #61 and the model won't take him before #117 — a 56-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Camryn Bynum (age 22.8 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #93 (range #62-#124, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Rock Ya-Sin (Starter), Dane Cruikshank (Contributor), Artie Burns (Starter). Ceiling is Artie Burns (Starter); floor is Dane Cruikshank (Contributor). 40-yard dash of 4.58s — historically corners above 4.55s rarely become NFL starters. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #93 and the room's #94 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.