3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Ernest Jones (age 21.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #182 (range #167-#197, wide band). Bust probability sits at 1% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Cole Holcomb (Starter), Zaire Franklin (Starter), Devante Downs (Bust). Ceiling is Cole Holcomb (Starter); floor is Zaire Franklin (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Devante Downs, Trevor Bates, Matthew Adams. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #127 and the model won't take him before #182 — a 55-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Isaiah McDuffie (age 21.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #212 (range #210-#214, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 15% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 45 spots ahead of the room (board #212 vs consensus #257), and at a 15% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Cameron McGrone (age 20.9 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #61 (range #24-#98, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 43% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Anthony Walker (Bust), Vosean Joseph, Raekwon McMillan. Ceiling is Shaquille Leonard (Franchise); floor is Vosean Joseph. Drafted #177 by NWE in 2021 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a value lean: #61 against a consensus #87 is a 26-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with missed entire rookie season the tax on that edge.