3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Amare Barno (age 23.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #167 (range #129-#205, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 7% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Alton Robinson (Contributor), D.J. Wonnum (Starter), Darrell Taylor (Contributor). Ceiling is D.J. Wonnum (Starter); floor is Trevis Gipson (Contributor). Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #104 and the model won't take him before #167 — a 62-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Sam Williams (age 23.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #110 (range #70-#150, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kenny Willekes (Bust), Jonathan Greenard (Starter), Darrell Taylor (Contributor). Ceiling is Jonathan Greenard (Starter); floor is Trevis Gipson (Contributor). Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 26 spots below the room's consensus #84 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Isaiah Thomas (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #196 (range #156-#236, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 4% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Darrell Taylor (Contributor), Jason Strowbridge (Bust), Jonathan Greenard (Starter). Ceiling is Jonathan Greenard (Starter); floor is Trevis Gipson (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jason Strowbridge, Kenny Willekes. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #94 and the model won't take him before #196 — a 102-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.