3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Tyler Badie (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #191 (range #157-#225, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Ke'Shawn Vaughn (Bust), Eno Benjamin (Contributor), La'Mical Perine (Bust). Ceiling is Joshua Kelley (Contributor); floor is Eno Benjamin (Contributor). 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Ke'Shawn Vaughn, La'Mical Perine, Jason Huntley. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #191 against a consensus #218 is a 27-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with average-to-below athletic profile the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Rachaad White (age 23.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #119 (range #82-#156, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 5% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Ke'Shawn Vaughn (Bust), Eno Benjamin (Contributor), Joshua Kelley (Contributor). Ceiling is Antonio Gibson (Contributor); floor is Eno Benjamin (Contributor). 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Ke'Shawn Vaughn, La'Mical Perine. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #87 and the model won't take him before #119 — a 32-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Tyler Allgeier (age 22.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #144 (range #109-#179, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jason Huntley (Bust), Tony Pollard (Starter), Kareem Hunt (Bust). Ceiling is Tony Pollard (Starter); floor is Darrell Henderson (Contributor). Career trajectory in rushing yards: 119 → 1131 → 1606. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jason Huntley, Kareem Hunt, Darwin Thompson. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #144 sits within 5 spots of the room's #149 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 6% bust probability break ties on draft day.