2 prospects · 2022 draft
Decisive factor: $24M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Sauce Gardner (age 21.7 at draft) as a first-round pick at #21 (range #7-#35, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 14 spots below the room's consensus #7 — don't pay sticker price. The 14-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Daxton Hill (age 21.6 at draft) as a first-round pick at #17 (range #7-#27, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jaylon Johnson (Starter), Adoree' Jackson (Bust), Mike Hughes (Starter). Ceiling is Mike Hughes (Starter); floor is Carlton Davis (Starter). 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Adoree' Jackson, Kevin King. Mixed signal from history. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #17 sits within 8 spots of the room's #25 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.