3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Aidan Hutchinson (age 21.7 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #4 (range #1-#20, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 2% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Taco Charlton (Bust), Jonathan Allen (Bust), Yetur Gross-Matos (Contributor). Ceiling is Sam Hubbard (Franchise); floor is Yetur Gross-Matos (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Taco Charlton, Jonathan Allen. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #4 and the room's #3 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 2% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Sam Williams (age 23.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #110 (range #70-#150, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 13% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kenny Willekes (Bust), Jonathan Greenard (Starter), Darrell Taylor (Contributor). Ceiling is Jonathan Greenard (Starter); floor is Trevis Gipson (Contributor). Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 26 spots below the room's consensus #84 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Josh Paschal (age 22.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #87 (range #55-#119, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 30% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Charles Omenihu (Contributor), Breeland Speaks (Bust), Khalid Kareem (Bust). Ceiling is Charles Omenihu (Contributor); floor is Joe Jackson (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Breeland Speaks, Khalid Kareem, Daeshon Hall (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 14 spots below the room's consensus #73 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.