2 prospects · 2022 draft
Decisive factor: $23M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV. Reinforced by 19-pick gap on Draftanomics projection and a stronger historical comp arc.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Kaiir Elam (age 21.0 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #41 (range #24-#58, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Mike Hughes (Starter), Justin Layne (Bust), Greedy Williams (Contributor). Ceiling is Jaire Alexander (Starter); floor is Greedy Williams (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #41 sits within 8 spots of the room's #33 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Derek Stingley Jr. (age 20.9 at draft) as a first-round pick at #22 (range #16-#28, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Isaiah Oliver (Starter), Jaylon Johnson (Starter), Rock Ya-Sin (Starter). Ceiling is Mike Hughes (Starter); floor is Isaiah Oliver (Starter). The call is a lean fade: the model sits 15 spots below the room's consensus #7 — don't pay sticker price. The 15-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.