3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Martin Emerson (age 21.6 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #75 (range #56-#94, wide band). Bust probability sits at 30% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Donnie Lewis Jr., Duke Shelley (Contributor), Harrison Hand (Bust). Ceiling is Josiah Scott (Contributor); floor is Donnie Lewis Jr.. 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Harrison Hand, Kamrin Moore. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #75 against a consensus #99 is a 24-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group bust rate the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Samuel Womack (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #253 (range #214-#292, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 35% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Donnie Lewis Jr., D.J. Reed (Starter), Rasul Douglas (Bust). Ceiling is D.J. Reed (Starter); floor is Donnie Lewis Jr.. School SP+ 6.9 (MID-AMERICAN). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Rasul Douglas, Ahkello Witherspoon. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #253 stands alone — and with bust risk at 35%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Christian Benford (age 21.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #121 (range #100-#142, wide band). Bust probability sits at 30% — real but not disqualifying. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 99 spots ahead of the room (board #121 vs consensus #220), and at a 30% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.