3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Martin Emerson (age 21.6 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #75 (range #56-#94, wide band). Bust probability sits at 30% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Donnie Lewis Jr., Duke Shelley (Contributor), Harrison Hand (Bust). Ceiling is Josiah Scott (Contributor); floor is Donnie Lewis Jr.. 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Harrison Hand, Kamrin Moore. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #75 against a consensus #99 is a 24-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group bust rate the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Russ Yeast (age 23.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #226 (range #186-#266, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 50% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Chris Williamson (Bust), Duke Shelley (Contributor), Chuck Clark (Bust). Ceiling is Jamel Dean (Starter); floor is Duke Shelley (Contributor). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Chris Williamson, Chuck Clark, Rasul Douglas. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #226 stands alone — and with bust risk at 50%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Nick Cross (age 20.6 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #96 (range #80-#112, wide band). Bust probability sits at 30% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Avonte Maddox (Starter), Fabian Moreau (Bust), Howard Wilson. Ceiling is Avonte Maddox (Starter); floor is Howard Wilson. RAS 8.69 (86th percentile at CB). Athletic tools that translate cleanly to the NFL. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Fabian Moreau, Ahkello Witherspoon, Justin Layne. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #96 sits within 11 spots of the room's #85 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 30% bust probability break ties on draft day.