3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Greg Dulcich (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #147 (range #109-#185, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Josiah Deguara (Contributor), Brycen Hopkins (Bust), Harrison Bryant (Contributor). Ceiling is Adam Trautman (Starter); floor is Harrison Bryant (Contributor). Career trajectory in receiving yards: 105 → 517 → 725. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Brycen Hopkins, Stephen Sullivan. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #77 and the model won't take him before #147 — a 70-spot markdown. The discount is earned — te slow 40 (4.69s) leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Charlie Kolar (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #244 (range #206-#282, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 26% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Brycen Hopkins (Bust), Josiah Deguara (Contributor), Adam Trautman (Starter). Ceiling is Adam Trautman (Starter); floor is Harrison Bryant (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Brycen Hopkins, Stephen Sullivan. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #96 and the model won't take him before #244 — a 148-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Trey McBride (age 22.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #44 (range #31-#57, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Harrison Bryant (Contributor), Brycen Hopkins (Bust), Adam Trautman (Starter). Ceiling is Adam Trautman (Starter); floor is Harrison Bryant (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Brycen Hopkins, Jace Sternberger. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #44 against a consensus #57 is a 13-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with average-to-below athletic profile the tax on that edge.