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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (LB)
TB
Terrel Bernard
LB · Baylor
23.0 yo · 6'1" · 224 lb
DJ
D'Marco Jackson
LB · Appalachian St.
23.8 yo · 6'1" · 233 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Terrel Bernard over D'Marco Jackson.

Decisive factor: a bust risk 65 points lower. Reinforced by 48-pick gap on Draftanomics projection, $9M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV and a stronger historical comp arc.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Terrel Bernard
Predicted pick
#142
range #109–#175
Bust probability
0%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#73
on 1 board
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$12Mmodel
D'Marco Jackson
Predicted pick
#190
range #140–#240
Bust probability
65%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#149
on 1 board
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Terrel Bernard· EDGE / DL / LB
  • D'Marco Jackson· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTerrel Bernard100
  • AthleticismD'Marco Jackson41
  • AgeTerrel Bernard36
  • ConsensusD'Marco Jackson29
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Terrel Bernard50
  • Breakout ageTerrel Bernard50
  • WorkloadTerrel Bernard100
  • RAS × productionTerrel Bernard0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Evan WeaverLB · TBD→ shared byTerrel BernardD'Marco Jackson
  • Zack BaunLB · Contributor→ shared byTerrel BernardD'Marco Jackson
Terrel Bernard
  • Evan Weavershared
    LB · #202
    TBD
  • Zack Baunshared
    LB · #74
    Contributor
  • Malik Harrison
    LB · #98
    Contributor
  • Akeem Davis-Gaither
    LB · #107
    Contributor
  • Cam Brown
    LB · #183
    Bust
D'Marco Jackson
  • Logan Wilson
    LB · #65
    Starter
  • Zack Baunshared
    LB · #74
    Contributor
  • Evan Weavershared
    LB · #202
    TBD
  • Quentin Poling
    LB · #227
    Bust
  • Ben Banogu
    LB · #49
    Backup

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Terrel Bernard
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    2 boards have him at mean rank #108; model has him #142 — a 34-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
D'Marco Jackson
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #161 by NOR in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.8 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Comp group bust rate
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Quentin Poling, Ben Banogu. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    2 boards have him at mean rank #114; model has him #190 — a 76-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Terrel BernardD'Marco Jackson· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Terrel Bernard

Draftanomics projects Terrel Bernard (age 23.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #142 (range #109-#175, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Evan Weaver, Zack Baun (Contributor), Malik Harrison (Contributor). Ceiling is Zack Baun (Contributor); floor is Evan Weaver. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #108 and the model won't take him before #142 — a 34-spot markdown. The 34-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.

D'Marco Jackson

Draftanomics projects D'Marco Jackson (age 23.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #190 (range #140-#240, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Logan Wilson (Starter), Zack Baun (Contributor), Evan Weaver. Ceiling is Logan Wilson (Starter); floor is Ben Banogu (Backup). Drafted #161 by NOR in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #114 and the model won't take him before #190 — a 76-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.