3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects David Bell (age 21.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #97 (range #63-#131, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Isaiah Coulter (Bust), JuJu Smith-Schuster (Bust), Tee Higgins (Franchise). Ceiling is Tee Higgins (Franchise); floor is JJ Arcega-Whiteside (Contributor). RAS 2.56 (25th percentile vs WR prospects in a 512-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 22 spots below the room's consensus #75 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — athletic profile below nfl threshold leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Kyle Philips (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #213 (range #202-#224, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 22% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Isaiah Coulter (Bust), Shelton Gibson (Bust), Quintez Cephus (Contributor). Ceiling is Quintez Cephus (Contributor); floor is Damion Ratley (Backup). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Isaiah Coulter, Shelton Gibson, Josh Malone (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #97 and the model won't take him before #213 — a 116-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Treylon Burks (age 22.1 at draft) as a first-round pick at #14 (range #1-#60, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: JJ Arcega-Whiteside (Contributor), Marquise Brown (Starter), Jerry Jeudy (Starter). Ceiling is Jerry Jeudy (Starter); floor is James Washington (Contributor). Career trajectory in receiving yards: 475 → 820 → 1104. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. RAS 3.99 (39th percentile at WR). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #14 sits within 9 spots of the room's #23 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.