2 prospects · 2022 draft
Decisive factor: 74-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 30 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Micah McFadden (age 22.3 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #105 (range #85-#125, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Marquel Lee (Bust), Ulysees Gilbert (Bust), Jacob Martin (Contributor). Ceiling is Jacob Martin (Contributor); floor is Ulysees Gilbert (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Marquel Lee, Ulysees Gilbert, Joel Iyiegbuniwe (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 105 spots ahead of the room (board #105 vs consensus #210), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Daniel Hardy (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #179 (range #158-#200, wide band). Bust probability sits at 30% — manageable. Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #179 stands alone — and with bust risk at 30%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.