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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
KS
Khalil Shakir
WR · Boise St.
22.2 yo · 6'0" · 196 lb
DG
Danny Gray
WR · SMU
23.1 yo · 6'0" · 186 lb
RD
Romeo Doubs
WR · Nevada
22.0 yo · 6'2" · 201 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Khalil Shakir
Predicted pick
#131
range #84–#178
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#141
on 24 boards
Career arc
Franchise
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$12Mmodel
Danny Gray
Predicted pick
#214
range #170–#258
Bust probability
4%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#147
on 2 boards
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Romeo Doubs
Predicted pick
#207
range #162–#252
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#140
on 3 boards
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$13Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Khalil Shakir· RB / WR / TE
  • Danny Gray· RB / WR / TE
  • Romeo Doubs· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionKhalil Shakir0
  • AthleticismDanny Gray39
  • AgeRomeo Doubs84
  • ConsensusRomeo Doubs9
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Khalil Shakir50
  • Breakout ageKhalil Shakir50
  • WorkloadKhalil Shakir100
  • RAS × productionKhalil Shakir0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Jauan JenningsWR · Contributor→ shared byKhalil ShakirDanny GrayRomeo Doubs
  • Devin DuvernayWR · Starter→ shared byKhalil ShakirDanny GrayRomeo Doubs
  • Brandon AiyukWR · Franchise→ shared byKhalil ShakirDanny GrayRomeo Doubs
  • Antonio Gandy-GoldenWR · Bust→ shared byKhalil ShakirRomeo Doubs
  • Denzel MimsWR · Contributor→ shared byDanny GrayRomeo Doubs
Khalil Shakir
  • Jauan Jenningsshared
    WR · #217
    Contributor
  • Antonio Gandy-Goldenshared
    WR · #142
    Bust
  • Devin Duvernayshared
    WR · #92
    Starter
  • Brandon Aiyukshared
    WR · #25
    Franchise
  • Michael Pittman Jr.
    WR · #34
    Franchise
Danny Gray
  • Jauan Jenningsshared
    WR · #217
    Contributor
  • Brandon Aiyukshared
    WR · #25
    Franchise
  • Van Jefferson
    WR · #57
    Starter
  • Devin Duvernayshared
    WR · #92
    Starter
  • Denzel Mimsshared
    WR · #59
    Contributor
Romeo Doubs
  • Antonio Gandy-Goldenshared
    WR · #142
    Bust
  • Brandon Aiyukshared
    WR · #25
    Franchise
  • Jauan Jenningsshared
    WR · #217
    Contributor
  • Denzel Mimsshared
    WR · #59
    Contributor
  • Devin Duvernayshared
    WR · #92
    Starter

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Khalil Shakir
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.81 (48th percentile at WR). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    25 boards have him at mean rank #91; model has him #131 — a 40-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Devin Duvernay, Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman Jr.. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Danny Gray
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    3 boards have him at mean rank #121; model has him #214 — a 93-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Brandon Aiyuk, Van Jefferson, Devin Duvernay. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Romeo Doubs
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    4 boards have him at mean rank #107; model has him #207 — a 100-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Promising comp group
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes hit Starter-or-better: Brandon Aiyuk, Devin Duvernay.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Khalil ShakirDanny GrayRomeo Doubs· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Khalil Shakir

Draftanomics projects Khalil Shakir (age 22.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #131 (range #84-#178, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jauan Jennings (Contributor), Antonio Gandy-Golden (Bust), Devin Duvernay (Starter). Ceiling is Brandon Aiyuk (Franchise); floor is Jauan Jennings (Contributor). RAS 4.81 (48th percentile at WR). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #91 and the model won't take him before #131 — a 40-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.

Danny Gray

Draftanomics projects Danny Gray (age 23.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #214 (range #170-#258, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 4% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jauan Jennings (Contributor), Brandon Aiyuk (Franchise), Van Jefferson (Starter). Ceiling is Brandon Aiyuk (Franchise); floor is Jauan Jennings (Contributor). Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #121 and the model won't take him before #214 — a 93-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.

Romeo Doubs

Draftanomics projects Romeo Doubs (age 22.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #207 (range #162-#252, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Antonio Gandy-Golden (Bust), Brandon Aiyuk (Franchise), Jauan Jennings (Contributor). Ceiling is Brandon Aiyuk (Franchise); floor is Jauan Jennings (Contributor). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #107 and the model won't take him before #207 — a 100-spot markdown. The 100-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.