3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Thomas Booker (age 22.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #145 (range #103-#187, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 55% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Chad Thomas (Contributor), Andrew Brown (Bust), Joe Jackson (Bust). Ceiling is Zach Sieler (Starter); floor is Jalen Jelks. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Andrew Brown, Joe Jackson. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #145 sits within 9 spots of the room's #154 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 55% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Josh Paschal (age 22.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #87 (range #55-#119, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Charles Omenihu (Contributor), Breeland Speaks (Bust), Khalid Kareem (Bust). Ceiling is Charles Omenihu (Contributor); floor is Joe Jackson (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Breeland Speaks, Khalid Kareem, Daeshon Hall (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 14 spots below the room's consensus #73 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Alex Wright (age 21.6 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #59 (range #14-#104, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jonathan Garvin (Contributor), Tanoh Kpassagnon (Bust), Deatrich Wise Jr. (Bust). Ceiling is Jonathan Garvin (Contributor); floor is Joe Jackson (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Tanoh Kpassagnon, Deatrich Wise Jr., Joe Jackson (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #59 against a consensus #85 is a 26-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group bust rate the tax on that edge.