Draftanomics
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • 2028 way-too-early
  • Draft news
  • Simulator
  • The house mock
  • Draft order
  • Trade calculator
  • The Scouting Slate
  • Sleepers & reaches
  • Movers & fallers
  • Player comps
  • Dynasty rookie board
  • Track record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Analyst leaderboard
My rankingsAccount
Get the weekly →
Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

Boards
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • Sleepers
Tools
  • Mock draft simulator
  • Plays Like
  • Dynasty rookie board
Track Record
  • Year-by-year results
  • Accountability Index
  • Our board, on the record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Methodology
  • Developers · free API
  • About
Account
  • My board
  • Weekly email
Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2022 board/
  4. Compare

Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
SC
Snoop Conner
RB · Mississippi
21.7 yo · 5'10" · 222 lb
TD
Tyrion Davis-Price
RB · LSU
21.5 yo · 6'0" · 211 lb
Tiebreaker
Medium confidence
Take Snoop Conner over Tyrion Davis-Price.

Decisive factor: a bust risk 39 points lower.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Snoop Conner
Predicted pick
#248
range #233–#263
Bust probability
12%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Tyrion Davis-Price
Predicted pick
#231
range #200–#262
Bust probability
51%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Snoop Conner· RB / WR / TE
  • Tyrion Davis-Price· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionSnoop Conner0
  • AthleticismSnoop Conner39
  • AgeTyrion Davis-Price83
  • ConsensusSnoop Conner11
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Snoop Conner50
  • Breakout ageSnoop Conner50
  • WorkloadSnoop Conner100
  • RAS × productionSnoop Conner0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • DeeJay DallasRB · Bust→ shared bySnoop ConnerTyrion Davis-Price
  • Ryquell ArmsteadRB · Bust→ shared bySnoop ConnerTyrion Davis-Price
Snoop Conner
  • Benny Snell Jr.
    RB · #122
    Contributor
  • Qadree Ollison
    RB · #152
    Bust
  • DeeJay Dallasshared
    RB · #144
    Bust
  • Ryquell Armsteadshared
    RB · #140
    Bust
  • D'Onta Foreman
    RB · #89
    Bust
Tyrion Davis-Price
  • Khalfani Muhammad
    RB · #241
    TBD
  • Chase Edmonds
    RB · #134
    Contributor
  • DeeJay Dallasshared
    RB · #144
    Bust
  • Nyheim Hines
    RB · #104
    Contributor
  • Ryquell Armsteadshared
    RB · #140
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Snoop Conner
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.05 (40th percentile at RB). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Comp group bust rate
    4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Qadree Ollison, DeeJay Dallas, Ryquell Armstead (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.255 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Tyrion Davis-Price
Risks
  • Comp group bust rate
    2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: DeeJay Dallas, Ryquell Armstead. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.142 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    1 board have him at mean rank #175; model has him #231 — a 56-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Breakout production arc
    Career trajectory in rushing yards: 295 → 446 → 1003. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Snoop ConnerTyrion Davis-Price· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Snoop Conner

Draftanomics projects Snoop Conner (age 21.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #248 (range #233-#263, wide band). Bust probability sits at 12% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Benny Snell Jr. (Contributor), Qadree Ollison (Bust), DeeJay Dallas (Bust). Ceiling is Benny Snell Jr. (Contributor); floor is Qadree Ollison (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Qadree Ollison, DeeJay Dallas, Ryquell Armstead (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 20 spots below the room's consensus #228 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.

Tyrion Davis-Price

Draftanomics projects Tyrion Davis-Price (age 21.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #231 (range #200-#262, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 51% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Khalfani Muhammad, Chase Edmonds (Contributor), DeeJay Dallas (Bust). Ceiling is Nyheim Hines (Contributor); floor is Khalfani Muhammad. Career trajectory in rushing yards: 295 → 446 → 1003. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: DeeJay Dallas, Ryquell Armstead. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #175 and the model won't take him before #231 — a 56-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.