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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
SC
Snoop Conner
RB · Mississippi
21.7 yo · 5'10" · 222 lb
IS
Isaiah Spiller
RB · Texas A&M
20.7 yo · 6'0" · 217 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Isaiah Spiller over Snoop Conner.

Decisive factor: 175-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 12 points lower.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Snoop Conner
Predicted pick
#248
range #233–#263
Bust probability
12%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Isaiah Spiller
Predicted pick
#73
range #50–#96
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#67
on 24 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Snoop Conner· RB / WR / TE
  • Isaiah Spiller· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionSnoop Conner0
  • AthleticismSnoop Conner39
  • AgeIsaiah Spiller77
  • ConsensusIsaiah Spiller44
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Snoop Conner50
  • Breakout ageSnoop Conner50
  • WorkloadSnoop Conner100
  • RAS × productionSnoop Conner0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • D'Onta ForemanRB · Bust→ shared bySnoop ConnerIsaiah Spiller
Snoop Conner
  • Benny Snell Jr.
    RB · #122
    Contributor
  • Qadree Ollison
    RB · #152
    Bust
  • DeeJay Dallas
    RB · #144
    Bust
  • Ryquell Armstead
    RB · #140
    Bust
  • D'Onta Foremanshared
    RB · #89
    Bust
Isaiah Spiller
  • David Montgomery
    RB · #73
    Starter
  • D'Andre Swift
    RB · #35
    Starter
  • Derrius Guice
    RB · #59
    Bust
  • D'Onta Foremanshared
    RB · #89
    Bust
  • Wayne Gallman
    RB · #140
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Snoop Conner
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.05 (40th percentile at RB). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Comp group bust rate
    4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Qadree Ollison, DeeJay Dallas, Ryquell Armstead (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.255 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Isaiah Spiller
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.28 (42th percentile at RB). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Derrius Guice, D'Onta Foreman, Wayne Gallman. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.158 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Snoop ConnerIsaiah Spiller· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Snoop Conner

Draftanomics projects Snoop Conner (age 21.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #248 (range #233-#263, wide band). Bust probability sits at 12% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Benny Snell Jr. (Contributor), Qadree Ollison (Bust), DeeJay Dallas (Bust). Ceiling is Benny Snell Jr. (Contributor); floor is Qadree Ollison (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Qadree Ollison, DeeJay Dallas, Ryquell Armstead (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 20 spots below the room's consensus #228 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.

Isaiah Spiller

Draftanomics projects Isaiah Spiller (age 20.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #73 (range #50-#96, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: David Montgomery (Starter), D'Andre Swift (Starter), Derrius Guice (Bust). Ceiling is D'Andre Swift (Starter); floor is David Montgomery (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Derrius Guice, D'Onta Foreman, Wayne Gallman. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #73 sits within 6 spots of the room's #67 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.