3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Eric Johnson (age 23.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #181 (range #153-#209, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 38% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Robert Windsor (Bust), Leki Fotu (Contributor), Larrell Murchison (Backup). Ceiling is DaVon Hamilton (Starter); floor is Larrell Murchison (Backup). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Robert Windsor, Larrell Murchison, Renell Wren. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #147 and the model won't take him before #181 — a 34-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Otito Ogbonnia (age 21.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #186 (range #142-#230, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 47% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Leki Fotu (Contributor), Robert Windsor (Bust), Larrell Murchison (Backup). Ceiling is DaVon Hamilton (Starter); floor is Larrell Murchison (Backup). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Robert Windsor, Larrell Murchison. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 28 spots below the room's consensus #158 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jonathan Ford (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #252 (range #228-#276, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Renell Wren (Bust), Carlos Davis (Bust), Demarcus Christmas. Ceiling is Sebastian Joseph-Day (Starter); floor is Demarcus Christmas. Drafted #234 by GNB in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 76 spots ahead of the room (board #252 vs consensus #328) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.