3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects D'Marco Jackson (age 23.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #190 (range #140-#240, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Logan Wilson (Starter), Zack Baun (Contributor), Evan Weaver. Ceiling is Logan Wilson (Starter); floor is Ben Banogu (Backup). Drafted #161 by NOR in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #114 and the model won't take him before #190 — a 76-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Chad Muma (age 22.7 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #53 (range #18-#88, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Davion Taylor (Backup), Evan Weaver, T.J. Brunson (Bust). Ceiling is Akeem Davis-Gaither (Contributor); floor is Davion Taylor (Backup). 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Davion Taylor, T.J. Brunson, Cam Brown. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #53 sits within 2 spots of the room's #55 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Terrel Bernard (age 23.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #142 (range #109-#175, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Evan Weaver, Zack Baun (Contributor), Malik Harrison (Contributor). Ceiling is Zack Baun (Contributor); floor is Evan Weaver. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #108 and the model won't take him before #142 — a 34-spot markdown. The 34-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.