3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Luke Wattenberg as a Day 3 dart throw at #176 (range #149-#203, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 40% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Danny Isidora, Sam Jones (Bust), Sean Harlow. Ceiling is Sean Harlow; floor is Danny Isidora. 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Sam Jones, Kyle Hinton, Lachavious Simmons. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 103 spots ahead of the room (board #176 vs consensus #279), and at a 40% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Cam Jurgens as a mid-round flyer at #129 (range #109-#149, wide band). Bust probability sits at 27% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jackson Barton (Bust), Wyatt Teller (Franchise), George Asafo-Adjei. Ceiling is Wyatt Teller (Franchise); floor is Kyle Fuller. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jackson Barton, Javon Patterson. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #62 and the model won't take him before #129 — a 67-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Elijah Hicks (age 22.5 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #82 (range #37-#127, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 5% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jaylinn Hawkins (Starter), Vernon Scott (Bust), Rudy Ford (Bust). Ceiling is Jaylinn Hawkins (Starter); floor is Foyesade Oluokun (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Vernon Scott, Rudy Ford, Marquise Blair. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #82 stands alone — and with bust risk at 5%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.