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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (P, OL)
MA
Matt Araiza
P · San Diego St.
21.9 yo · 6'1" · 200 lb
DK
Doug Kramer
OL · Illinois
— · — · —
ZT
Zachary Thomas
OL · San Diego St.
— · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Matt Araiza
Predicted pick
#116
range #94–#138
Bust probability
30%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#158
on 2 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Doug Kramer
Predicted pick
#141
range #127–#155
Bust probability· rough estimate
8%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Zachary Thomas
Predicted pick
#70
range #48–#92
Bust probability· rough estimate
4%
0%comp-based · 0/4
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Matt Araiza· Specialists
  • Doug Kramer· Offensive line
  • Zachary Thomas· Offensive line
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMatt Araiza50
  • AthleticismZachary Thomas52
  • AgeZachary Thomas100
  • ConsensusZachary Thomas15
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Matt Araiza50
  • Breakout ageMatt Araiza50
  • WorkloadMatt Araiza50
  • RAS × productionZachary Thomas60

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Matt Araiza
  • Sterling Hofrichter
    P · #228
    Bust
  • Johnny Townsend
    P · #173
    Bust
  • Jake Bailey
    P · #163
    Bust
  • Logan Cooke
    P · #247
    Bust
  • JK Scott
    P · #172
    Bust
Doug Kramer
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Zachary Thomas
  • Conor McDermott
    OT · #211
    TBD
  • Phil Haynes
    G · #124
    Contributor
  • Wes Martin
    G · #131
    Contributor
  • Kevin Dotson
    G · #135
    Franchise
  • Justin Skule
    OT · #183
    Contributor

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Matt Araiza
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #180 by BUF in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • Comp group bust rate
    5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Sterling Hofrichter, Johnny Townsend, Jake Bailey (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Doug Kramer
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #207 by CHI in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #275; model has him #141 — a 134-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Zachary Thomas
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #224; model has him #70 — a 154-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Matt AraizaDoug KramerZachary Thomas· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Matt Araiza

Draftanomics projects Matt Araiza (age 21.9 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #116 (range #94-#138, wide band). Bust probability sits at 30% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Sterling Hofrichter (Bust), Johnny Townsend (Bust), Jake Bailey (Bust). Ceiling is Jake Bailey (Bust); floor is Logan Cooke (Bust). Drafted #180 by BUF in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #116 and the room's #116 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 30% bust probability break ties on draft day.

Doug Kramer

Draftanomics projects Doug Kramer as a mid-round flyer at #141 (range #127-#155, wide band). Bust probability sits at 8% — low. Drafted #207 by CHI in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 134 spots ahead of the room (board #141 vs consensus #275), and at a 8% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Zachary Thomas

Draftanomics projects Zachary Thomas as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #70 (range #48-#92, wide band). Bust probability sits at 4% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Conor McDermott, Phil Haynes (Contributor), Wes Martin (Contributor). Ceiling is Kevin Dotson (Franchise); floor is Conor McDermott. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 154 spots ahead of the room (board #70 vs consensus #224), and at a 4% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.