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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
KH
Kevin Harris
RB · South Carolina
21.4 yo · 5'10" · 221 lb
SC
Snoop Conner
RB · Mississippi
21.7 yo · 5'10" · 222 lb
KI
Keaontay Ingram
RB · USC
22.5 yo · 6'0" · 221 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Kevin Harris
Predicted pick
#170
range #131–#209
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Snoop Conner
Predicted pick
#248
range #233–#263
Bust probability
12%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Keaontay Ingram
Predicted pick
#175
range #142–#208
Bust probability
20%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Kevin Harris· RB / WR / TE
  • Snoop Conner· RB / WR / TE
  • Keaontay Ingram· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionKevin Harris0
  • AthleticismKevin Harris78
  • AgeKevin Harris96
  • ConsensusKevin Harris16
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Kevin Harris50
  • Breakout ageKevin Harris50
  • WorkloadKevin Harris100
  • RAS × productionKeaontay Ingram100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Travis HomerRB · Bust→ shared byKevin HarrisKeaontay Ingram
  • Ty JohnsonRB · Contributor→ shared byKevin HarrisKeaontay Ingram
  • Nyheim HinesRB · Contributor→ shared byKevin HarrisKeaontay Ingram
Kevin Harris
  • Travis Homershared
    RB · #204
    Bust
  • Alexander Mattison
    RB · #102
    Contributor
  • Matthew Dayes
    RB · #252
    Bust
  • Ty Johnsonshared
    RB · #186
    Contributor
  • Nyheim Hinesshared
    RB · #104
    Contributor
Snoop Conner
  • Benny Snell Jr.
    RB · #122
    Contributor
  • Qadree Ollison
    RB · #152
    Bust
  • DeeJay Dallas
    RB · #144
    Bust
  • Ryquell Armstead
    RB · #140
    Bust
  • D'Onta Foreman
    RB · #89
    Bust
Keaontay Ingram
  • Ty Johnsonshared
    RB · #186
    Contributor
  • Travis Homershared
    RB · #204
    Bust
  • Kalen Ballage
    RB · #131
    Contributor
  • Khalfani Muhammad
    RB · #241
    TBD
  • Nyheim Hinesshared
    RB · #104
    Contributor

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Kevin Harris
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #236; model has him #170 — a 66-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Comp group bust rate
    2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Travis Homer, Matthew Dayes. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.090 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Snoop Conner
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.05 (40th percentile at RB). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Comp group bust rate
    4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Qadree Ollison, DeeJay Dallas, Ryquell Armstead (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.255 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Keaontay Ingram
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #242; model has him #175 — a 67-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.235 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Kevin HarrisSnoop ConnerKeaontay Ingram· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Kevin Harris

Draftanomics projects Kevin Harris (age 21.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #170 (range #131-#209, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Travis Homer (Bust), Alexander Mattison (Contributor), Matthew Dayes (Bust). Ceiling is Alexander Mattison (Contributor); floor is Ty Johnson (Contributor). 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Travis Homer, Matthew Dayes. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 66 spots ahead of the room (board #170 vs consensus #236), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Snoop Conner

Draftanomics projects Snoop Conner (age 21.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #248 (range #233-#263, wide band). Bust probability sits at 12% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Benny Snell Jr. (Contributor), Qadree Ollison (Bust), DeeJay Dallas (Bust). Ceiling is Benny Snell Jr. (Contributor); floor is Qadree Ollison (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Qadree Ollison, DeeJay Dallas, Ryquell Armstead (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 20 spots below the room's consensus #228 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.

Keaontay Ingram

Draftanomics projects Keaontay Ingram (age 22.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #175 (range #142-#208, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Ty Johnson (Contributor), Travis Homer (Bust), Kalen Ballage (Contributor). Ceiling is Nyheim Hines (Contributor); floor is Khalfani Muhammad. PPA avg_all 0.235 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 67 spots ahead of the room (board #175 vs consensus #242), and at a 20% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.