2 prospects · 2022 draft
Decisive factor: 117-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by $10M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV and a stronger historical comp arc.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Malcolm Rodriguez (age 23.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #130 (range #87-#173, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: David Long (Starter), Joshua Uche (Contributor), Ben Banogu (Backup). Ceiling is David Long (Starter); floor is Ben Banogu (Backup). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Ben Banogu, Ryan Connelly. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 32 spots ahead of the room (board #130 vs consensus #162), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Devin Lloyd (age 23.6 at draft) as a first-round pick at #13 (range #1-#49, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Genard Avery (Contributor), Haason Reddick (Bust), Justin Hollins (Contributor). Ceiling is Troy Dye (Contributor); floor is Justin Hollins (Contributor). 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Haason Reddick, Jachai Polite. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #13 sits within 6 spots of the room's #19 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.