3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jalen Nailor (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #221 (range #199-#243, wide band). Bust probability sits at 28% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jaleel Scott (Bust), J'Mon Moore (Bust), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Starter). Ceiling is Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Starter); floor is Marcus Green. Career trajectory in receiving yards: 106 → 515 → 695. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jaleel Scott, J'Mon Moore, Dezmon Patmon. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #221 against a consensus #237 is a 16-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with older prospect the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Dareke Young (age 22.9 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #173 (range #152-#194, wide band). Bust probability sits at 31% — real but not disqualifying. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 160 spots ahead of the room (board #173 vs consensus #333), and at a 31% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Erik Ezukanma (age 22.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #228 (range #199-#257, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Quintez Cephus (Contributor), Austin Proehl, Freddie Swain (Contributor). Ceiling is Quintez Cephus (Contributor); floor is Austin Proehl. 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Dezmon Patmon, Josh Malone. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #165 and the model won't take him before #228 — a 63-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.