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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
JN
Jalen Nailor
WR · Michigan St.
23.2 yo · 5'11" · 186 lb
DG
Danny Gray
WR · SMU
23.1 yo · 6'0" · 186 lb
KP
Kyle Philips
WR · UCLA
22.9 yo · 5'11" · 189 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Jalen Nailor
Predicted pick
#221
range #138–#272
Bust probability
38%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Danny Gray
Predicted pick
#214
range #73–#257
Bust probability
22%
Consensus rank
#147
on 2 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Kyle Philips
Predicted pick
#213
range #72–#256
Bust probability
39%
Consensus rank
#103
on 2 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Jalen Nailor· RB / WR / TE
  • Danny Gray· RB / WR / TE
  • Kyle Philips· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJalen Nailor0
  • AthleticismJalen Nailor39
  • AgeKyle Philips34
  • ConsensusKyle Philips18
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Jalen Nailor50
  • Breakout ageJalen Nailor50
  • WorkloadJalen Nailor100
  • RAS × productionJalen Nailor0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Jalen Nailor
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Danny Gray
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Kyle Philips
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Jalen Nailor
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Danny Gray
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Kyle Philips
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Jalen NailorDanny GrayKyle Philips· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Jalen Nailor

−0.03 age; −0.03 boards with him top-100; +0.03 charting gap run block grade

Danny Gray

−0.05 age; −0.03 scout consensus; −0.03 boards with him top-100

Kyle Philips

−0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.03 HS recruit rating; −0.02 age