3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Keaontay Ingram (age 22.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #175 (range #142-#208, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Ty Johnson (Contributor), Travis Homer (Bust), Kalen Ballage (Contributor). Ceiling is Nyheim Hines (Contributor); floor is Khalfani Muhammad. PPA avg_all 0.235 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 67 spots ahead of the room (board #175 vs consensus #242), and at a 20% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Snoop Conner (age 21.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #248 (range #233-#263, wide band). Bust probability sits at 12% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Benny Snell Jr. (Contributor), Qadree Ollison (Bust), DeeJay Dallas (Bust). Ceiling is Benny Snell Jr. (Contributor); floor is Qadree Ollison (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Qadree Ollison, DeeJay Dallas, Ryquell Armstead (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 20 spots below the room's consensus #228 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Tyrion Davis-Price (age 21.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #231 (range #200-#262, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 51% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Khalfani Muhammad, Chase Edmonds (Contributor), DeeJay Dallas (Bust). Ceiling is Nyheim Hines (Contributor); floor is Khalfani Muhammad. Career trajectory in rushing yards: 295 → 446 → 1003. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: DeeJay Dallas, Ryquell Armstead. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #175 and the model won't take him before #231 — a 56-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.