3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Theo Jackson (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #193 (range #159-#227, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 47% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Donnie Lewis Jr., Davontae Harris (Contributor), Joshua Holsey (Bust). Ceiling is Amani Oruwariye (Starter); floor is Donnie Lewis Jr.. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Joshua Holsey, Cordrea Tankersley. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #193 stands alone — and with bust risk at 47%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Christian Holmes (age 24.4 at draft) as a priority UDFA at #261 (range #231-#291, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 53% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Ka'dar Hollman (Bust), Brian Allen (Bust), Damontae Kazee (Bust). Ceiling is Lonnie Johnson Jr. (Starter); floor is Ka'dar Hollman (Bust). 4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Ka'dar Hollman, Brian Allen, Damontae Kazee (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #261 stands alone — and with bust risk at 53%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Cobie Durant (age 24.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #215 (range #198-#232, wide band). Bust probability sits at 30% — real but not disqualifying. Age 24.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 36 spots ahead of the room (board #215 vs consensus #251), and at a 30% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.