2 prospects · 2022 draft
Decisive factor: 97-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 65 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects John FitzPatrick (age 22.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #251 (range #230-#272, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Charlie Woerner (Contributor), Durham Smythe (Starter), Jordan Thomas (Contributor). Ceiling is Durham Smythe (Starter); floor is Jordan Thomas (Contributor). Drafted #213 by ATL in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 53 spots ahead of the room (board #251 vs consensus #304) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Jeremy Ruckert (age 21.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #154 (range #115-#193, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Stephen Sullivan (Bust), Alizé Mack, Dalton Schultz (Franchise). Ceiling is Dalton Schultz (Franchise); floor is Alizé Mack. 1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Stephen Sullivan. Mixed signal from history. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #83 and the model won't take him before #154 — a 71-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.