3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Ja'Sir Taylor (age 23.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #232 (range #213-#251, wide band). Bust probability sits at 39% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Brian Allen (Bust), Davontae Harris (Contributor), Stephen Denmark. Ceiling is Davontae Harris (Contributor); floor is Stephen Denmark. Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #232 stands alone — and with bust risk at 39%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects DaRon Bland (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #250 (range #232-#268, wide band). Bust probability sits at 35% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Thakarius Keyes (Bust), Chris Claybrooks (Contributor), Chris Williamson (Bust). Ceiling is Chris Claybrooks (Contributor); floor is Chris Williamson (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Thakarius Keyes, Chris Williamson, Derrick Jones (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #169 and the model won't take him before #250 — a 81-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Quentin Lake (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #203 (range #162-#244, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 53% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Davontae Harris (Contributor), Chris Williamson (Bust), Brian Allen (Bust). Ceiling is Lonnie Johnson Jr. (Starter); floor is Dane Cruikshank (Contributor). 40-yard dash of 4.59s — historically corners above 4.55s rarely become NFL starters. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 74 spots ahead of the room (board #203 vs consensus #277) — but size the bet for the 53% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.