3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects James Houston (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #182 (range #153-#211, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 24% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Dakota Allen (Bust), Chapelle Russell (Bust), Kaden Elliss (Starter). Ceiling is Cole Holcomb (Starter); floor is Kaden Elliss (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Dakota Allen, Chapelle Russell, Ryan Connelly. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 102 spots ahead of the room (board #182 vs consensus #284), and at a 24% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Daniel Hardy (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #179 (range #158-#200, wide band). Bust probability sits at 25% — manageable. Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #179 stands alone — and with bust risk at 25%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Rodney Thomas II (age 23.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #180 (range #177-#183, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 33% — real but not disqualifying. Age 23.8 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #180 stands alone — and with bust risk at 33%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.