3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Ko Kieft (age 24.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #245 (range #203-#287, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Caleb Wilson (Bust), Jace Sternberger (Bust), Michael Roberts (Bust). Ceiling is Ian Thomas (Starter); floor is Jordan Akins (Contributor). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Caleb Wilson, Jace Sternberger, Michael Roberts. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #245 stands alone — and with bust risk at 0%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Jelani Woods (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #239 (range #204-#274, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Eric Saubert (Bust), George Kittle (Bust), Albert Okwuegbunam (Contributor). Ceiling is Cole Kmet (Franchise); floor is Albert Okwuegbunam (Contributor). RAS 8.02 (80th percentile at TE). Athletic tools that translate cleanly to the NFL. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Eric Saubert, George Kittle, Gerald Everett. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #97 and the model won't take him before #239 — a 142-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects James Mitchell (age 22.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #233 (range #194-#272, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 12% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Ryan Izzo (Contributor), Zach Gentry (Contributor), Devin Asiasi (Backup). Ceiling is Dawson Knox (Starter); floor is Devin Asiasi (Backup). RAS 2.88 (28th percentile vs TE prospects in a 276-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #197 and the model won't take him before #233 — a 36-spot markdown. The discount is earned — athletic profile below nfl threshold leads the case against.