3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Cameron Goode (age 24.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #197 (range #154-#240, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 33% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Marquis Haynes (Contributor), Josh Carraway (Bust), Pita Taumoepenu (Bust). Ceiling is Kemoko Turay (Contributor); floor is Marquis Haynes (Contributor). Drafted #224 by MIA in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #197 stands alone — and with bust risk at 33%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Jeff Gunter (age 22.9 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #152 (range #123-#181, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 31% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Keion Adams, Josh Carraway (Bust), Travin Howard (Bust). Ceiling is Leon Jacobs (Contributor); floor is Keion Adams. School SP+ 13.2 (SUN BELT). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Josh Carraway, Travin Howard, Samson Ebukam. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 46 spots ahead of the room (board #152 vs consensus #198), and at a 31% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Drake Jackson (age 21.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #84 (range #65-#103, wide band). Bust probability sits at 25% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Fred Warner (Starter), Malik Jefferson (Bust), Tyus Bowser (Bust). Ceiling is Fred Warner (Starter); floor is Carl Lawson (Bust). 4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Malik Jefferson, Tyus Bowser, Carl Lawson (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 16 spots below the room's consensus #68 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.