3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Nick Muse (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #227 (range #194-#260, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Trevon Wesco (Contributor), Colby Parkinson (Contributor), Kahale Warring (Bust). Ceiling is Trevon Wesco (Contributor); floor is Tommy Sweeney (Backup). 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Kahale Warring, Dalton Keene, Tommy Sweeney. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #227 stands alone — and with bust risk at 6%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Connor Heyward (age 23.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #230 (range #211-#249, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Josiah Deguara (Contributor), Brycen Hopkins (Bust), Trevon Wesco (Contributor). Ceiling is Drew Sample (Starter); floor is Trevon Wesco (Contributor). Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a value lean: #230 against a consensus #247 is a 17-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with older prospect the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Grant Calcaterra (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #257 (range #217-#297, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 32% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Josiah Deguara (Contributor), Stephen Sullivan (Bust), Brycen Hopkins (Bust). Ceiling is Adam Trautman (Starter); floor is Devin Asiasi (Backup). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Stephen Sullivan, Brycen Hopkins, Devin Asiasi. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #257 against a consensus #282 is a 25-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with older prospect the tax on that edge.