3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Deane Leonard (age 22.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #166 (range #164-#168, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 45% — elevated. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #166 stands alone — and with bust risk at 45%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Dane Belton (age 21.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #102 (range #85-#119, wide band). Bust probability sits at 38% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Thakarius Keyes (Bust), Chuck Clark (Bust), Harrison Hand (Bust). Ceiling is Jamal Agnew (Bust); floor is Thakarius Keyes (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Thakarius Keyes, Chuck Clark, Harrison Hand (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 79 spots ahead of the room (board #102 vs consensus #181), and at a 38% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Quentin Lake (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #203 (range #162-#244, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 53% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Davontae Harris (Contributor), Chris Williamson (Bust), Brian Allen (Bust). Ceiling is Lonnie Johnson Jr. (Starter); floor is Dane Cruikshank (Contributor). 40-yard dash of 4.59s — historically corners above 4.55s rarely become NFL starters. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 74 spots ahead of the room (board #203 vs consensus #277) — but size the bet for the 53% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.