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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OL, TE)
TM
Thayer Munford
OL · Ohio St.
— · — · —
JF
John FitzPatrick
TE · Georgia
22.1 yo · — · —
Tiebreaker
Medium confidence
Take Thayer Munford over John FitzPatrick.

Decisive factor: 93-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Thayer Munford
Predicted pick
#158
range #117–#199
Bust probability· rough estimate
28%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
#104
on 2 boards
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
John FitzPatrick
Predicted pick
#251
range #230–#272
Bust probability
12%
0%0/3 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Thayer Munford· Offensive line
  • John FitzPatrick· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionThayer Munford50
  • AthleticismJohn FitzPatrick21
  • AgeJohn FitzPatrick89
  • ConsensusThayer Munford19
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Thayer Munford50
  • Breakout ageThayer Munford50
  • WorkloadThayer Munford50
  • RAS × productionThayer Munford0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Thayer Munford
  • Will Clapp
    C · #245
    Contributor
  • Bobby Evans
    OT · #97
    Contributor
  • Shane Lemieux
    G · #150
    Contributor
  • Geron Christian
    OT · #74
    Contributor
  • Mason Cole
    C · #97
    Franchise
John FitzPatrick
  • Charlie Woerner
    TE · #190
    Contributor
  • Durham Smythe
    TE · #123
    Starter
  • Jordan Thomas
    TE · #211
    Contributor
  • Jake Butt
    TE · #145
    TBD
  • Jordan Leggett
    TE · #150
    TBD

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Thayer Munford
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 3.96 (39th percentile at OL). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    3 boards have him at mean rank #105; model has him #158 — a 53-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
John FitzPatrick
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #213 by ATL in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #304; model has him #251 — a 53-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Thayer MunfordJohn FitzPatrick· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Thayer Munford

Draftanomics projects Thayer Munford as a mid-round flyer at #158 (range #117-#199, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 28% — manageable. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Will Clapp (Contributor), Bobby Evans (Contributor), Shane Lemieux (Contributor). Ceiling is Mason Cole (Franchise); floor is Will Clapp (Contributor). RAS 3.96 (39th percentile at OL). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #105 and the model won't take him before #158 — a 53-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.

John FitzPatrick

Draftanomics projects John FitzPatrick (age 22.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #251 (range #230-#272, wide band). Bust probability sits at 12% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Charlie Woerner (Contributor), Durham Smythe (Starter), Jordan Thomas (Contributor). Ceiling is Durham Smythe (Starter); floor is Jordan Thomas (Contributor). Drafted #213 by ATL in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 53 spots ahead of the room (board #251 vs consensus #304), and at a 12% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.