3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Skylar Thompson (age 24.9 at draft) as a priority UDFA at #258 (range #219-#297, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 51% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Ryan Finley (Backup), Will Grier (Bust), Danny Etling. Ceiling is Danny Etling; floor is Ryan Finley (Backup). Age 24.9 at draft. Players entering the league past 24 hit fewer career milestones — the developmental window is already compressed before they take an NFL snap. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 23 spots below the room's consensus #235 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Chris Oladokun (age 24.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #223 (range #191-#255, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Ryan Finley (Backup), Jake Luton (Bust), Easton Stick (Contributor). Ceiling is Easton Stick (Contributor); floor is Ryan Finley (Backup). Drafted #241 by PIT in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #223 stands alone — and with bust risk at 65%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Kenny Pickett (age 23.9 at draft) as a first-round pick at #30 (range #1-#78, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Justin Herbert (Franchise), Jalen Hurts (Franchise), Jordan Love (Starter). Ceiling is Joe Burrow (Franchise); floor is Jordan Love (Starter). Age 23.9 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #30 sits within 10 spots of the room's #40 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.