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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (QB)
ST
Skylar Thompson
QB · Kansas St.
24.9 yo · 6'2" · 217 lb
CO
Chris Oladokun
QB · South Dakota St.
24.6 yo · — · —
Tiebreaker
Low confidence
Take Skylar Thompson over Chris Oladokun.

Decisive factor: a bust risk 34 points lower.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Skylar Thompson
Predicted pick
#258
range #143–#251
Bust probability· rough estimate
31%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Chris Oladokun
Predicted pick
#223
range #191–#255
Bust probability· rough estimate
65%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Skylar Thompson· QB
  • Chris Oladokun· QB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionSkylar Thompson50
  • AthleticismSkylar Thompson0
  • AgeChris Oladokun4
  • ConsensusChris Oladokun6
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Skylar Thompson50
  • Breakout ageSkylar Thompson50
  • WorkloadSkylar Thompson50
  • RAS × productionSkylar Thompson50

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Skylar Thompson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Chris Oladokun
  • Ryan Finley
    QB · #104
    Backup
  • Jake Luton
    QB · #189
    Bust
  • Easton Stick
    QB · #166
    Contributor
  • Ben DiNucci
    QB · #231
    Bust
  • Tommy Stevens
    QB · #240
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Skylar Thompson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Chris Oladokun
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #241 by PIT in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • Older prospect
    Age 24.6 at draft. Players entering the league past 24 hit fewer career milestones — the developmental window is already compressed before they take an NFL snap.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Skylar ThompsonChris Oladokun· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Skylar Thompson

−0.08 age; −0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.03 scout consensus

Chris Oladokun

Draftanomics projects Chris Oladokun (age 24.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #223 (range #191-#255, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Ryan Finley (Backup), Jake Luton (Bust), Easton Stick (Contributor). Ceiling is Easton Stick (Contributor); floor is Ryan Finley (Backup). Drafted #241 by PIT in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #223 stands alone — and with bust risk at 65%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.