3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Brittain Brown (age 24.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #243 (range #219-#267, wide band). Bust probability sits at 4% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: De'Angelo Henderson (Bust), Jordan Wilkins (Backup), David Williams (Bust). Ceiling is Joe Williams; floor is Jordan Wilkins (Backup). Career trajectory in rushing yards: 56 → 543 → 616. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. Age 24.6 at draft. Players entering the league past 24 hit fewer career milestones — the developmental window is already compressed before they take an NFL snap. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #243 stands alone — and with bust risk at 4%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Pierre Strong (age 23.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #117 (range #87-#147, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 63% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Joe Williams, Justin Jackson (Backup), Boston Scott (Contributor). Ceiling is Joe Williams; floor is Justin Jackson (Backup). 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Justin Jackson, Devante Mays, Trenton Cannon. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 12 spots below the room's consensus #105 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Ty Chandler (age 24.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #255 (range #231-#279, wide band). Bust probability sits at 27% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jordan Wilkins (Backup), David Williams (Bust), Jordan Scarlett (Bust). Ceiling is Joe Williams; floor is Jordan Wilkins (Backup). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jordan Wilkins, David Williams, Jordan Scarlett (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #132 and the model won't take him before #255 — a 123-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.