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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
ZH
Zander Horvath
RB · Purdue
23.4 yo · — · —
PS
Pierre Strong
RB · South Dakota St.
23.4 yo · 5'11" · 207 lb
KI
Keaontay Ingram
RB · USC
22.5 yo · 6'0" · 221 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Zander Horvath
Predicted pick
#220
range #203–#237
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Pierre Strong
Predicted pick
#117
range #87–#147
Bust probability
63%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#121
on 2 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Keaontay Ingram
Predicted pick
#175
range #142–#208
Bust probability
20%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Zander Horvath· RB / WR / TE
  • Pierre Strong· RB / WR / TE
  • Keaontay Ingram· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionZander Horvath0
  • AthleticismPierre Strong100
  • AgeKeaontay Ingram60
  • ConsensusPierre Strong31
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Zander Horvath50
  • Breakout ageZander Horvath50
  • WorkloadZander Horvath100
  • RAS × productionKeaontay Ingram100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Zander Horvath
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Pierre Strong
  • Joe Williams
    RB · #121
    TBD
  • Justin Jackson
    RB · #251
    Backup
  • Boston Scott
    RB · #201
    Contributor
  • Devante Mays
    RB · #238
    Bust
  • Trenton Cannon
    RB · #204
    Bust
Keaontay Ingram
  • Ty Johnson
    RB · #186
    Contributor
  • Travis Homer
    RB · #204
    Bust
  • Kalen Ballage
    RB · #131
    Contributor
  • Khalfani Muhammad
    RB · #241
    TBD
  • Nyheim Hines
    RB · #104
    Contributor

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Zander Horvath
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Pierre Strong
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Justin Jackson, Devante Mays, Trenton Cannon. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.323 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Keaontay Ingram
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #242; model has him #175 — a 67-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.235 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Zander HorvathPierre StrongKeaontay Ingram· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Zander Horvath

Draftanomics projects Zander Horvath (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #220 (range #203-#237, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #220 stands alone — and with bust risk at 0%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.

Pierre Strong

Draftanomics projects Pierre Strong (age 23.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #117 (range #87-#147, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 63% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Joe Williams, Justin Jackson (Backup), Boston Scott (Contributor). Ceiling is Joe Williams; floor is Justin Jackson (Backup). 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Justin Jackson, Devante Mays, Trenton Cannon. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 12 spots below the room's consensus #105 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.

Keaontay Ingram

Draftanomics projects Keaontay Ingram (age 22.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #175 (range #142-#208, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Ty Johnson (Contributor), Travis Homer (Bust), Kalen Ballage (Contributor). Ceiling is Nyheim Hines (Contributor); floor is Khalfani Muhammad. PPA avg_all 0.235 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 67 spots ahead of the room (board #175 vs consensus #242), and at a 20% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.