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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
AP
Alec Pierce
WR · Cincinnati
22.0 yo · 6'3" · 211 lb
CW
Christian Watson
WR · North Dakota St.
23.0 yo · 6'4" · 208 lb
CI
Calvin Austin III
WR · Memphis
23.1 yo · 5'8" · 170 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Alec Pierce
Predicted pick
#118
range #44–#216
Bust probability
18%
Consensus rank
#95
on 25 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$23Mmodel
Christian Watson
Predicted pick
#48
range #26–#85
Bust probability
8%
Consensus rank
#51
on 26 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$17Mmodel
Calvin Austin III
Predicted pick
#115
range #62–#218
Bust probability
21%
Consensus rank
#119
on 24 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Alec Pierce· RB / WR / TE
  • Christian Watson· RB / WR / TE
  • Calvin Austin III· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionAlec Pierce0
  • AthleticismChristian Watson77
  • AgeAlec Pierce84
  • ConsensusChristian Watson62
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Alec Pierce50
  • Breakout ageAlec Pierce50
  • WorkloadAlec Pierce100
  • RAS × productionAlec Pierce0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Alec Pierce
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Christian Watson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Calvin Austin III
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Alec Pierce
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Christian Watson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Calvin Austin III
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Alec PierceChristian WatsonCalvin Austin III· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Alec Pierce

+0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.02 athleticism (RAS); +0.02 age

Christian Watson

+0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.04 scout consensus; +0.04 boards with him top-50

Calvin Austin III

+0.07 boards with him top-100; −0.04 age; +0.03 charting: yards per route run from the slot, career avg