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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
JT
Jalen Tolbert
WR · South Alabama
23.2 yo · 6'1" · 194 lb
RD
Romeo Doubs
WR · Nevada
22.0 yo · 6'2" · 201 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Jalen Tolbert over Romeo Doubs.

Decisive factor: 81-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Jalen Tolbert
Predicted pick
#126
range #76–#176
Bust probability
14%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#112
on 24 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Romeo Doubs
Predicted pick
#207
range #162–#252
Bust probability
12%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#140
on 3 boards
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$13Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Jalen Tolbert· RB / WR / TE
  • Romeo Doubs· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJalen Tolbert0
  • AthleticismJalen Tolbert39
  • AgeRomeo Doubs84
  • ConsensusJalen Tolbert17
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Jalen Tolbert50
  • Breakout ageJalen Tolbert50
  • WorkloadJalen Tolbert100
  • RAS × productionJalen Tolbert0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Antonio Gandy-GoldenWR · Bust→ shared byJalen TolbertRomeo Doubs
  • Brandon AiyukWR · Franchise→ shared byJalen TolbertRomeo Doubs
  • Jauan JenningsWR · Contributor→ shared byJalen TolbertRomeo Doubs
  • Denzel MimsWR · Contributor→ shared byJalen TolbertRomeo Doubs
Jalen Tolbert
  • Antonio Gandy-Goldenshared
    WR · #142
    Bust
  • Brandon Aiyukshared
    WR · #25
    Franchise
  • James Proche
    WR · #201
    Bust
  • Jauan Jenningsshared
    WR · #217
    Contributor
  • Denzel Mimsshared
    WR · #59
    Contributor
Romeo Doubs
  • Antonio Gandy-Goldenshared
    WR · #142
    Bust
  • Brandon Aiyukshared
    WR · #25
    Franchise
  • Jauan Jenningsshared
    WR · #217
    Contributor
  • Denzel Mimsshared
    WR · #59
    Contributor
  • Devin Duvernay
    WR · #92
    Starter

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Jalen Tolbert
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.97 (49th percentile at WR). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Comp group bust rate
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Antonio Gandy-Golden, James Proche. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    25 boards have him at mean rank #84; model has him #126 — a 42-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Breakout production arc
    Career trajectory in receiving yards: 521 → 1086 → 1474. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league.
Romeo Doubs
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    4 boards have him at mean rank #107; model has him #207 — a 100-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Promising comp group
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes hit Starter-or-better: Brandon Aiyuk, Devin Duvernay.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Jalen TolbertRomeo Doubs· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Jalen Tolbert

Draftanomics projects Jalen Tolbert (age 23.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #126 (range #76-#176, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 14% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Antonio Gandy-Golden (Bust), Brandon Aiyuk (Franchise), James Proche (Bust). Ceiling is Brandon Aiyuk (Franchise); floor is Jauan Jennings (Contributor). Career trajectory in receiving yards: 521 → 1086 → 1474. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Antonio Gandy-Golden, James Proche. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #84 and the model won't take him before #126 — a 42-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.

Romeo Doubs

Draftanomics projects Romeo Doubs (age 22.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #207 (range #162-#252, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 12% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Antonio Gandy-Golden (Bust), Brandon Aiyuk (Franchise), Jauan Jennings (Contributor). Ceiling is Brandon Aiyuk (Franchise); floor is Jauan Jennings (Contributor). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #107 and the model won't take him before #207 — a 100-spot markdown. The 100-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.