2 prospects · 2022 draft
Decisive factor: a bust risk 13 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Velus Jones Jr. (age 25.0 at draft) as a priority UDFA at #260 (range #219-#301, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 37% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Van Jefferson (Starter), James Proche (Bust), John Hightower (Contributor). Ceiling is Van Jefferson (Starter); floor is Javon Wims (Contributor). Career trajectory in receiving yards: 35 → 280 → 807. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. Age 25.0 at draft. Players entering the league past 24 hit fewer career milestones — the developmental window is already compressed before they take an NFL snap. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #97 and the model won't take him before #260 — a 163-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Samori Toure (age 24.1 at draft) as a priority UDFA at #262 (range #240-#284, wide band). Bust probability sits at 23% — manageable. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Starter), John Hightower (Contributor), Javon Wims (Contributor). Ceiling is Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Starter); floor is Javon Wims (Contributor). Age 24.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #262 stands alone — and with bust risk at 23%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.