3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Brian Robinson Jr. (age 23.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #91 (range #52-#130, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 15% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Ke'Shawn Vaughn (Bust), La'Mical Perine (Bust), Eno Benjamin (Contributor). Ceiling is Joshua Kelley (Contributor); floor is Eno Benjamin (Contributor). Career trajectory in rushing yards: 441 → 483 → 1343. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Ke'Shawn Vaughn, La'Mical Perine. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #91 sits within 10 spots of the room's #81 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 15% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Dameon Pierce (age 22.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #136 (range #99-#173, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Ke'Shawn Vaughn (Bust), La'Mical Perine (Bust), Eno Benjamin (Contributor). Ceiling is Antonio Gibson (Contributor); floor is Eno Benjamin (Contributor). 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Ke'Shawn Vaughn, La'Mical Perine. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #87 and the model won't take him before #136 — a 49-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jerome Ford (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #195 (range #160-#230, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 14% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: La'Mical Perine (Bust), Ke'Shawn Vaughn (Bust), Eno Benjamin (Contributor). Ceiling is Joshua Kelley (Contributor); floor is Eno Benjamin (Contributor). Career trajectory in rushing yards: 114 → 483 → 1319. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: La'Mical Perine, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Trayveon Williams. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #93 and the model won't take him before #195 — a 102-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.