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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OL)
MH
Marquis Hayes
OL · Oklahoma
— · — · —
AS
Andrew Stueber
OL · Michigan
— · — · —
JS
Justin Shaffer
OL · Georgia
— · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Marquis Hayes
Predicted pick
#137
range #57–#245
Bust probability· rough estimate
15%
Consensus rank
#53
on 2 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Andrew Stueber
Predicted pick
#161
range #104–#254
Bust probability· rough estimate
11%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Justin Shaffer
Predicted pick
#159
range #102–#252
Bust probability· rough estimate
28%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Marquis Hayes· Offensive line
  • Andrew Stueber· Offensive line
  • Justin Shaffer· Offensive line
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMarquis Hayes50
  • AthleticismJustin Shaffer16
  • AgeMarquis Hayes59
  • ConsensusMarquis Hayes22
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Marquis Hayes50
  • Breakout ageMarquis Hayes50
  • WorkloadMarquis Hayes50
  • RAS × productionMarquis Hayes0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Marquis Hayes
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Andrew Stueber
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Justin Shaffer
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Marquis Hayes
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Andrew Stueber
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Justin Shaffer
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Marquis HayesAndrew StueberJustin Shaffer· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Marquis Hayes

−0.05 HS recruit rating; −0.03 athleticism (RAS); +0.03 age

Andrew Stueber

−0.03 boards with him top-100; −0.03 scout consensus; +0.02 charting school line pass-block efficiency career avg

Justin Shaffer

−0.03 boards with him top-100; +0.03 age; −0.02 scout consensus