2 prospects · 2022 draft
Decisive factor: 179-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by $17M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV, a stronger historical comp arc and a bust risk 9 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Cordale Flott (age 20.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #199 (range #181-#217, wide band). Bust probability sits at 9% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Isaac Yiadom (Contributor), Cameron Dantzler (Starter), Michael Jackson (Starter). Ceiling is Cameron Dantzler (Starter); floor is Josiah Scott (Contributor). RAS 4.03 (40th percentile at CB). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #81 and the model won't take him before #199 — a 118-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Trent McDuffie (age 21.6 at draft) as a first-round pick at #20 (range #1-#51, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Isaiah Oliver (Starter), Quincy Wilson (Bust), Michael Jackson (Starter). Ceiling is Rock Ya-Sin (Starter); floor is Noah Igbinoghene (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #20 and the room's #22 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.