3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Chig Okonkwo (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #107 (range #69-#145, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 23% — manageable. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Chris Herndon (Starter), Jordan Thomas (Contributor), Eric Saubert (Bust). Ceiling is Chris Herndon (Starter); floor is Jordan Thomas (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #107 sits within 4 spots of the room's #111 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 23% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Teagan Quitoriano (age 22.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #237 (range #204-#270, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Jordan Thomas (Contributor), Eric Saubert (Bust), Chris Herndon (Starter). Ceiling is Chris Herndon (Starter); floor is Jordan Thomas (Contributor). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Eric Saubert, Caleb Wilson. Mixed signal from history. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 75 spots ahead of the room (board #237 vs consensus #312), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Jelani Woods (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #239 (range #204-#274, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Eric Saubert (Bust), George Kittle (Bust), Albert Okwuegbunam (Contributor). Ceiling is Cole Kmet (Franchise); floor is Albert Okwuegbunam (Contributor). RAS 8.02 (80th percentile at TE). Athletic tools that translate cleanly to the NFL. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Eric Saubert, George Kittle, Gerald Everett. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #97 and the model won't take him before #239 — a 142-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.