3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Chig Okonkwo (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #107 (range #69-#145, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 23% — manageable. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Chris Herndon (Starter), Jordan Thomas (Contributor), Eric Saubert (Bust). Ceiling is Chris Herndon (Starter); floor is Jordan Thomas (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #107 sits within 4 spots of the room's #111 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 23% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects John FitzPatrick (age 22.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #251 (range #230-#272, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Charlie Woerner (Contributor), Durham Smythe (Starter), Jordan Thomas (Contributor). Ceiling is Durham Smythe (Starter); floor is Jordan Thomas (Contributor). Drafted #213 by ATL in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 53 spots ahead of the room (board #251 vs consensus #304) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects James Mitchell (age 22.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #233 (range #194-#272, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 12% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Ryan Izzo (Contributor), Zach Gentry (Contributor), Devin Asiasi (Backup). Ceiling is Dawson Knox (Starter); floor is Devin Asiasi (Backup). RAS 2.88 (28th percentile vs TE prospects in a 276-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #197 and the model won't take him before #233 — a 36-spot markdown. The discount is earned — athletic profile below nfl threshold leads the case against.