3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Chig Okonkwo (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #107 (range #69-#145, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 23% — manageable. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Chris Herndon (Starter), Jordan Thomas (Contributor), Eric Saubert (Bust). Ceiling is Chris Herndon (Starter); floor is Jordan Thomas (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #107 sits within 4 spots of the room's #111 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 23% bust probability break ties on draft day.
+0.07 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting: deep-route grade, final season; −0.04 production trajectory
Draftanomics projects Isaiah Likely (age 22.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #103 (range #65-#141, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Harrison Bryant (Contributor), Brycen Hopkins (Bust), Josiah Deguara (Contributor). Ceiling is Adam Trautman (Starter); floor is Harrison Bryant (Contributor). Career trajectory in receiving yards: 431 → 601 → 912. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Brycen Hopkins, Stephen Sullivan. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #103 sits within 10 spots of the room's #93 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.